Modeling of Stochastic Process of Implementation of Various Combinations of Dangerous Meteorological Phenomena in the Mountains of the Caucasus
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Date
2019
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Ankara : Ankara Üniversitesi
Abstract
: The mountainous regions of Caucasus are characterized by the exceptional variety of dangerous
meteorological phenomena that often cause significant material damage and human losses. These dangerous
meteorological phenomena often occur simultaneously and exacerbate the situation. For example, increased wind
during heavy rains, fog during snowstorms, hurricanes with hail, etc. To reduce the negative effects of such
phenomena, it is necessary to know their probabilistic characteristics in given area. These meteorological
phenomena are independent of each other, therefore the physical process of their occurrence has stochastic nature
and it can be investigated as a random process based on the well-known probability theorems of multiplication and
addition. Using these theorems, the stochastic process of realizing various combinations of dangerous
meteorological phenomena in the Caucasus Mountains is modeled. For the Caucasus Mountains, the most likely is
the implementation of snowstorm, hurricane wind or hail in combination with dangerous fog. The occurrence
probabilities of one of the complex events, probability of the joint implementation of complex of both events and the
periods of risk recurrence are identified.
Key words: Meteorological Phenomena,
Description
Keywords
Meteorological phenomena, Mountains of the caucasus