Projections of Tourist Arrivals in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey
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Date
2020-04-30
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Ankara Üniversitesi
Abstract
Tourism forecasting plays a vital role to develop strong policy for the management of future development in the sector. This study makes tourist arrival projections in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey with application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Annual data of tourist arrivals from 1996 to 2018 has been used for proposed model. The results have revealed that the proposed model has projected the tourist arrival values that are very close to actual values. Tourist arrivals are projected to be increased in the future years in Eastern Black Sea Region, hence, making the region a popular tourist destination. Therefore, prior measures are important to take in order to develop tourism in sustainable form. The results of the study are useful for development of better tourism policy for the region as future projection is an integral part of sustainable tourism development.
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Keywords
Tourist arrivals, Tourism forecast, ARIMA modelling